The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reversed a CPI-induced rally as traders seemingly looked beyond the Fed pivot and towards the next tightening cycle in the distant future.

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The release of the US CPI update this past session proved as market-moving as could have been expected, but the volatility isn’t projecting trend. From a collapse in the VIX despite a massive intraday reversal from equities and EURUSD edging up to the next level of resistance, there are many different possible outcomes.

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Oil has put in two days of gains to start this week, holding support above the 70 handle. But can bulls put in a larger reversal of trend?

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Following a further slowdown in US inflation data, the Dollar has extended its slide to test lows not seen in six months. For a number of the ‘majors’ this move has translated into notable technical breaks. However, with the FOMC rate decision still ahead, it would be wise not to assume trend.

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The S&P 500 broke out to a fresh three month high after CPI was released this morning. Sellers snapped that move back very quickly, and the focus now shifts to tomorrow’s FOMC.

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